With Trevor Bauer officially a Los Angeles Dodger, the Mets will now seek other ways to round out their rotation. In addition, they can now turn their attention, and money, to filling other roster needs. One of those roster needs is a strong defensive center fielder.
According to Ken Davidoff and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets may intensify their efforts to bring Jackie Bradley Jr. to Queens. It seems logical that the Mets were waiting for the Bauer chip to fall before making other moves. From Sportrac, the Mets were roughly $28 million below the luxury tax threshold on January 16, 2021. Add in Aaron Loup‘s $3 million, and the Mets are now roughly $25 million under the point at which the tax kicks in.
The Dodgers will pay Bauer $40 million in the first year of his contract, according to Mark Feinsand.
Trevor Bauer gets $102M for 3 years from Dodgers, per source. He has opt outs after each of the first two years; $40M in 2021, $45M in 2022. He'll be the highest-paid player in MLB history in '21, then again in '22. Good job by @AgentRachelLuba & Jon Fetterolf of @zssports_law.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) February 5, 2021
Joel Sherman tweeted that the Mets had offered Bauer more money, so the if they had signed Bauer, the Mets would have significantly exceeded the luxury tax, and been faced with the choice of paying the fee or shedding payroll. In either case, it’s unlikely they would have spent on Bradley as well.
MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Bradley will command a deal worth about $16 million per year. While MLBTR suggests a two-year contract may be enough for Bradley, others speculate that the former Red Sox center fielder may end up signing for four or five years.
With the Mets $25 million under the luxury tax, they can certainly fit Bradley in, and have room for another rotation arm (the Jake Odorizzi “is he or isn’t he” rumors continue to swirl).
Bradley is a good, albeit not ideal, fit for the Mets. Defensively in center field, he’d be a significant upgrade over Brandon Nimmo. Bradley’s DRS in 2020 was 5 (career 48), versus Nimmo at -5 in 2020 (career -14). Bradley in center field would allow Nimmo to move to left field, where he is above average defensively, and far superior to the Mets’ other options of Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis (if Davis is not at third base).
The Virginia native, however, is not a great offensive player, with a career slash line of .239/.321/.412 with 98 home runs over eight seasons. He has a career bWAR of 18.0, with his best season being 2016, when he posted a 5.8 bWAR.
Another reason Bradley is not an ideal fit is that he is a left-handed hitter, and would join a lineup already tilted to the left side (Jeff McNeil, Nimmo, Smith, Michael Conforto). The other concern is the length of a potential contract. If Bradley does sign for four or five years, he’d be in his mid-thirties at the contract’s end.
There are other options for the Mets to consider for defense in center field. None of them would be ideal fits (Albert Almora, Delino DeShields Jr. are among the options). Both DeShields and Almora are right-handed hitters, but neither is as good of a defender as Bradley.
In the end, the Mets missed out on Bauer, whose addition to the rotation would have given the Mets among the best, if not the best rotation in the game.
However, the Mets are still under the luxury tax, and have the working capital and opportunity to address other needs. It will be interesting to see how they continue to add to their roster in the waning days of the off season.
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