If I learned one thing from watching the NFL over the weekend, it's that I don't have any idea what's going on in the NFL anymore. Every team I thought was good is actually bad. Every team I thought was bad is still bad, which I guess means there are no good teams left, so maybe the NFL needs to cancel the Super Bowl this year.
Things are definitely extra weird right now and I know that because I actually agreed with a tweet that Pete Prisco sent out over the weekend and I never agree with anything Prisco says or tweets.
By my count there's only one good team (the Cardinals) and for some reason, I pick them to lose every other week. I need to stop doing that.
Will this be the week I finally put aside my obvious hatred of the Cardinals aside and pick them to win? Probably not, but let's get to the picks and find out.
Actually, before we get to the Week 10 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Also, I'm in charge of the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and if you want me invading your inbox five days per week, then you should definitely sign up. If you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. If you do that, it will instantly make us best friends and you don't even have to feel bad about it because I've already let all my current best friends know that they might be replaced this week.
Since I'm now running a newsletter, you might be thinking that I'm way too busy to also podcast, but nope. If there are two things I'm never too busy for, it's podcasting and going to the pet store to look at turtles.
On the podcasting end, for the rest of the season, I'll be joining Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson three days per week (Monday, Tuesday and Friday) on the Pick Six Podcast, which is our daily NFL podcast here at CBSSports.com. You can listen to Tuesday's episode below. The reason you're going to want to listen is because we spent way more time than we probably should have dissecting the Steelers' chances of making the playoffs following their win over the Bears.
Alright, let's get to the picks. Oh, and just so everyone knows, I am one week away from not picking Saints games anymore. I hate the Saints.
NFL Week 10 Picks
New Orleans (5-3) at Tennessee (7-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Welcome to a new weekly section in my picks, which is where I make fun of myself for missing my Saints pick every week. If you're new here: It's pretty simple: I pick the Saints to win or lose their game and then they do the exact opposite. It doesn't matter who they're playing, it doesn't matter who's favored to win, if I pick the Saints to win, they're going to lose. If I pick them to lose they're going to win. I almost want to pick a tie this week just to see what will happen.
As I have documented every week for the past 10 weeks, I am horrible at picking the Saints this year. I'm 1-7 and every miss is worse than the last. The wrong picks are getting OUT OF HAND. With that in mind, let's check out my running tally of crappy Saints' picks. This first ran three weeks ago and now it's being updated with more of my crappy Saints picks:
- In Week 1, I picked the Packers to beat the Saints, which made sense in my head because when a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers is facing a team quarterbacked by Jameis Winston, I am taking Rodgers' team 100% of the time. The Packers lost 38-3.
- In Week 2, I thought, "Wow, the Saints looked really good against the Packers, so I'm going to pick them to beat the Panthers this week." The Saints did not win that week. As a matter of fact, they got beat so bad (26-7) that I forgot they beat the Packers in Week 1.
- In Week 3, the Saints were playing the Patriots and I didn't think there was anyway they were going to be able to go into Foxborough and steal a game on the road, especially after losing by 19 points to THE PANTHERS. Once again, the Saints had the last laugh after beating the Patriots 28-13.
- In Week 4, I thought I had a lay-up: I picked the Saints to beat the Giants, who are horrible. The Saints were WINNING this game 21-10 with seven minutes left, but somehow managed to lose. I'm assuming it's because I picked them to win. After this loss, I banned myself from ever visiting New Orleans. I don't deserve to be there.
- In Week 5, I outsmarted myself. The Saints were playing Washington and although my gut said, "Go with New Orleans," I never listen to my gut because if God wanted us to listen to our gut, he would have put our brain there. Maybe our brain should be there, because once again, I whiffed on the pick.
- In Week 6, I picked the bye to beat the Saints and as we all saw, New Orleans won again.
- In Week 7, I finally got one right, but I still don't feel good about it because I picked them to beat a Seahawks team that didn't have Russell Wilson. Even my 18-month old daughter knew the Saints were going to win that game.
- In Week 8, I picked the Buccaneers to beat the Saints and of course, we all know what happened. The Buccaneers did not beat the Saints. New Orleans played half this game with its third-string quarterback and somehow still won.
- In Week 9, I picked the Saints to beat the Falcons and I have to say, there was no game this season that was a bigger slap in the face than this one. When picking any game involving the Falcons, you always have to account for the fact that they're almost certainly going to have a spectacular fourth quarter collapse and the collapse ACTUALLY HAPPENED. The Falcons blew an 18-point lead over the final 10 minutes of the game and in any other season, this story ends with an Atlanta loss, but not this season, not in the season where all my Saints picks are wrong. After blowing the lead, the Falcons still won because they hit a last-second field goal. I am so jinxed that I reversed the most predictable thing in sports history, which is the Falcons collapsing late in a game.
What I'm trying to say is that whatever I pick for this week's game, you should assume the opposite is going to happen. I want to say that the Titans are the hottest team in football and there's no way they can lose, but there is a way they can lose: If I pick them to win, they're not winning.
I live in Nashville, so I would like to publicly apologize to everyone I know here for picking Tennessee to win this week.
The pick: Titans 19-16 over Saints
Cleveland (5-4) at New England (5-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
If the Browns are somehow able to beat the Patriots on Sunday, it will mark their first road win against them since 1992. The only reason I'm mentioning that is because the Browns coach at the time was Bill Belichick. For reference, here is Belichick during his time as a model/coach for the team.
Of course, Belichick only lasted until 1995 with the Browns before he got dumped and ever since that happened, I feel like he hates them with the passion of five thousand suns. I'm guessing he wants to win this game so badly that he's probably had someone on his staff breaking down film for this game since 8:01 p.m. ET on May 12, which is one minute after the schedule came out.
The problem for the Browns is that the Patriots will beat you however they have to beat you and this week, I'm thinking that means Belichick is going to put the game on Baker Mayfield's shoulders, which is kind of what you would expect Belichick to do, especially since Baker's shoulders are injured. I feel like the Patriots will go all-in to stop the run. They're not going to let Cleveland's best offensive player (Nick Chubb) beat them, which means if the Browns are going to win, Mayfield's going to have to have a a huge day. Mayfield had a huge day against the Bengals, but the Patriots are definitely not the Bengals. As a matter of fact, if there are two teams you'll never get mixed up ever, it's the Patriots and the Bengals.
Part of me wants to take the Browns here, but that part of me is dead inside, so I'm taking the Patriots.
The pick: Patriots 23-20 over Browns
Minnesota (3-5) at L.A. Chargers (5-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
If Roger Goodell ever quits his job and gives it to me, the first thing I'm going to do is move all the Vikings games to prime time. Sure, no one would actually want this -- not even Vikings fans -- but hear me out: America loves drama and America loves watching people meltdown on national television, and if you've watched the Vikings play a single game this season, then you already know that they will provide both of those things every single week.
The Vikings find a new and exciting way to lose every week. In Week 9, they blew a double-digit lead to the Ravens and then lost in overtime. Of their five losses this year, all of them have come by one score and four of them weren't decided until the final play of the game. They've made losing an art form and I think we can all agree that America needs more art.
Unfortunately for football fans, you likely won't be able to watch this game because I'm pretty sure it's only going to about 5% of the country on Sunday, which is sad, because it means no one is going to notice when the Vikings pull off the upset. That's right, I just spent two paragraphs talking about how the Vikings have perfected the art of losing, only to pick them NOT to lose. This is a bigger twist than the end of "The Sixth Sense."
My problem with the Chargers is that they have the worst rushing defense in the NFL. They're giving up 161.6 yards per game, which is absolutely crazy when you consider that no other team is even giving up 140. If the Vikings are smart, they'll tear all the pass plays out of their play book this week and set them on fire. The Vikings aren't smart though, which is why they keep losing games on the final play. The twist here though is that they're going to WIN a game on the final play this week.
The pick: Vikings 27-24 over Chargers
Seattle (3-5) at Green Bay (7-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
For those of you wondering, yes, I did watch the Aaron Rodgers interview over the weekend, and no, I did not ever think we'd hear someone admit that they're taking medical advice from the guy who hosted "Fear Factor." The Packers quarterback is expected to be returning this week, but he has to clear COVID protocols first, and even if he does that, he's not allowed to practice with the team until Saturday at the earliest. Although I do think Rodgers will play, I have not been able to confirm that with his medical adviser, Joe Rogan.
I would make fun of Rodgers for taking medical advice from Rogan, but I'm not really in a position to talk since I get all of my medical advice from a cat.
Anyway, the other quarterback in this game will be Russell Wilson, who will be officially be returning this week after missing the Seahawks' past three games due to a finger injury. I don't know who Wilson was getting his medical advice from while he was out, but I'm guessing it wasn't Rogan (or a cat or that matter), which is why he was able to come back so quickly.
On paper, I actually think the Packers have the more talented team, but I feel like the Seahawks will be catching Green Bay at the right time. By the time this game kicks off, Rodgers won't have taken a single snap with his team in nearly two weeks. I don't think he'll necessarily struggle, but if he's just slightly off, that will open the door for a Seahawks upset.
In theory, I should be all over the Packers here, but the pick isn't up to me this week. If Rodgers is going to get his medical advice from Joe Rogan, then I'm going to get my game pick from a Magic Eight Ball.
"Magic Eight Ball, are the Seahawks going to win?"
It told me to "ask again later," but we don't have time for that. I'm going with the Seahawks.
The pick: Seahawks 33-30 over Packers
Kansas City (5-4) at Las Vegas (5-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Like most people, I turned my clock back an hour over the weekend, which I'm only mentioning, because that's basically become my yearly reminder for when the Raiders' annual collapse is about to start. Once Daylight Savings Time ends, you can ignore whatever the Raiders did earlier in the season, because it doesn't matter anymore, the collapse is coming. Most of America gains an hour of sleep, but the Raiders don't gain anything except for more losses. In 2020, they were 6-3 in November, only to finish 8-8. In 2019, they got to 6-4 before finishing 7-9. Instead of moving to Las Vegas, maybe the Raiders should have moved to Phoenix where they don't do Daylight Savings Time.
The midseason collapse happens so often for the Raiders that their fans actually seem mentally prepared for it to happen this year.
That's a trick question. No one can name a better duo.
Despite the major collapsing issue from the Raiders, this game is probably still my favorite matchup of the week. The Chiefs offense doesn't work anymore, the Raiders might be on the verge of another collapse, but I don't care, I will be glued to this game on Sunday night.
The biggest problem with the Chiefs right now is that I'm not sure what their biggest problem is: It might be their offense, but it also might be their defense. They're bad on both sides of the ball.
If you're going to try and tell me that the Chiefs defense has improved over the past two weeks, my counterargument is that it's because they've faced Jordan Love and Daniel Jones. Any defense looks good against those two guys. I think the Chiefs are going to struggle to stop the Raiders offense, which means the only way Kansas City is going to win this is if they can keep up in a shootout and based on what I've seen from them this year, that's not likely to happen.
The pick: Raiders 30-27 over Chiefs
NFL Week 10 picks: All the rest
Ravens 30-20 over Dolphins
Cowboys 34-23 over Falcons
Colts 31-17 over Jaguars
Bills 34-24 over Jets
Steelers 27-17 over Lions
Buccaneers 27-20 over Washington
Cardinals 30-13 over Panthers
Broncos 26-23 over Eagles
Rams 27-23 over 49ers
BYES: Bears, Bengals, Giants, Texans
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Dolphins would beat the Texans by eight in the worst game of the season and guess what happened? The Dolphins beat the Texans by eight in the worst game of the season, and let me just say, there was no way I was going to get this pick wrong. As someone who grew up a Bengals fan, I know more about bad football than most people alive, so when I saw that two of the worst teams in football were going to be playing each other last week, I knew I was going to nail the pick. I knew watching all that bad football as a kid would eventually pay off.
Worst pick: When I was making my picks last week, I assumed there was no way the 49ers could lose to a banged up Cardinals team, but the joke was on me, because they definitely lost. Actually, the joke was on Kyle Shanahan. The man is supposed to be a coaching genius, but he couldn't figure out a way to beat a team that was missing its two best offensive players (Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins.). I think we probably need to stop calling him a coaching genius, because a genius doesn't lose to a quarterback (Colt McCoy) who only has eight career wins. We can also stop referring to me as a genius since I got the pick wrong, but I don't think anyone was ever really doing that.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, here's a quick look:
Teams I'm 9-0 picking this year: Texans, Colts
Teams I've been the worst at picking this year: Saints (1-7), Washington (2-6), Falcons (2-6).
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 9: 7-7
SU overall: 86-50
Against the spread in Week 9: 7-7
ATS overall: 68-65-3
Exact score predictions: 2
Exact score, wrong winner: 2
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably on the phone with his doctor, who may or may not be a cat.
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