Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with the New York Jets visiting the Indianapolis Colts.
The Jets are coming off an upset against the Bengals in Cincinnati while the Colts enter off a disappointing loss at home to the Titans.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (31-15-1, 3-2 last week), Doug Kezirian (11-14-2, 1-1), Tyler Fulghum (7-17, 1-1) and Anita Marks (139-104, 15-14), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (17-12-1, 2-1), Stats & Information's Seth Walder 34-34 (6-0), Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (28-18, 4-2) and fantasy/betting analyst Eric Moody (56-43, 13-11) have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 45.5)
Schatz: If you've looked at the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings lately, you've noticed that the Colts are shockingly 10th overall despite a 3-5 record. If my numbers say the Colts are better than conventional wisdom, that would seem to suggest picking the Colts against the spread. After all, the Jets are very bad and their ratings are very bad (28th overall).
And yet, here I am picking the Jets to cover. The main reason is that the Colts' rating is built on defense, and defense is less consistent and predictive than offense. The Colts are 19th on offense compared to fifth on defense. Furthermore, turnovers are the least consistent part of playing defense, and they're very important to the Colts' defensive success this season. The Colts would be only 13th in defensive DVOA if we removed all takeaways (nine interceptions and eight forced fumbles on defense, seven of which the Colts have recovered).
Mediocre offense and special teams, combined with a defense that probably is not as good as it has played so far, is still better than the Jets. But is it 10.5 points better than the Jets? Especially if it turns out that Mike White, while probably not as good as he looked against Cincinnati, might be better than Zach Wilson was in the first six games of the year? Given how slow the Jets start games, I'm looking for a backdoor cover to take this pick home.
Pick: Jets +10.5
Fortenbaugh: A price of -150 implies a probability of 60 percent. So I present the following question to you, our loyal reader: Do you believe the Colts have a greater than 60 percent chance of outscoring the New York Jets in the first quarter of Thursday night's game? After all, the Jets are the only team in the NFL that has yet to score a point in the first quarter when playing on the road this season. Additionally, the Colts are currently tied for fifth in the league in first quarter scoring when playing at home (6.0 PPG). One other data point worth mentioning is the fact that New York ranks an abysmal 30th in first quarter points allowed this season (6.3 PPG). So, back to our original question: Do you believe the Colts have a greater than 60 percent chance of outscoring the Jets during Thursday night's first quarter?
Pick: Colts first quarter money line -150
Moody: Nyheim Hines averages 3.8 targets, 2.5 receptions and 17.9 receiving yards per game. He averages just 14.6 rushing yards per game and only 4.4 attempts per game. With the Colts as 10.5-point favorites, Hines stands to benefit from more opportunities. Jonathan Taylor, on the other hand, has averaged 15.1 attempts and 81.1 yards per game as a runner. As a receiver, he has been targeted 3.4 times, catches 2.6 passes and gains 33.1 yards per game. This year, the Jets have allowed 10.1 targets, 8.3 receptions and 79 receiving yards to running backs but only 115.1 rushing yards per game.
Michael Pittman will remain the Colts' top option in the passing game without T.Y. Hilton, who is out due to a concussion. Pittman caught 10 of 15 targets (a season high) last week for 86 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans. Pittman, who has surpassed 86 receiving yards in three of his last four games, is projected to face Jets cornerback Brandin Echols for most of the night and should be able to take advantage of the matchup.
Picks: Hines over 11.5 receiving yards (-120), Taylor under 83.5 rushing yards (-120), Taylor over 17.5 receiving yards (-120), Pittman over 66.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Jets travel to Indy on a short work week, flying high after an unexpected win against the Bengals. Time to come back down to earth for a team that only averages 11 points per game on the road. Mike White took the NFL by storm last week, but his depth of target was only four yards and the Colts defense will present a different challenge.
Carson Wentz is averaging two touchdown passes per a game and should have his way with the Jets secondary. Hilton is expected to be inactive, which means Pittman will be Wentz's main passing weapon yet again. Taylor has become a larger part of the passing game of late, and the Jets are allowing the fourth-most passing yards to opposing running backs this season. Michael Carter has become the lead back for the Jets, and White loves looking his way in the passing game as well (Carter has 22 targets since White has taken over at QB).
Picks: Under 45.5, Wentz over 1.5 TD passes (-130), Wentz over 8.5 rushing yards (-120), Pittman over 66.5 receiving yards (-115), Taylor over 2.5 receptions (-125), Carter over 4.5 receptions (+105), Carter under 12.5 carries (-125)
Walder: The gap in over 0.5 sack odds between Quinnen Williams (+160) and Sheldon Rankins (+300) seems large. Williams is better, yes. But this season, thus far, not by much. They're both playing well; Williams has a pass rush win rate -- an ESPN metric using NFL Next Gen Stats -- at defensive tackle of 21%, which ranks fourth in the league. Rankins is fifth in the same category, though a few percentage points below at 17%. Like I said, it's a difference, but not a huge one. But what seals this for me is who they'll face. Williams generally lines up on the left side of the center from the offensive perspective, which means he should see three-time all-pro Quenton Nelson. But Rankins, on the other side, will get Chris Reed (and/or Mark Glowinski), who are both a little below average in pass block win rate. I'm betting the spread is too large here.
Picks: Rankins over 0.5 sacks (+300 at SugarHouse), Williams under 0.5 sacks (-215 at SugarHouse)
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