The Clippers spent the final weekend of the regular season loading up the minutes for Patrick Patterson and Yogi Ferrell and DeMarcus Cousins, and they lost a pair of games to Oklahoma City and Houston in the process, which seemed to be the club’s questionable goal.
Regardless of the motive (Avoid the Lakers until the third round? Face Dallas instead of Portland in the first?), they have continued to lose with their starters on the floor. So, for Game 3 Friday night, maybe LA’s only hope is to go back to the bench.
Play the scrubs and let them hack the Mavericks on every possession until they foul out. Then see where the score stands and get Kawhi and Playoff P into the contest.
This is not likely to be the option Clippers coach Tyronn Lue chooses as an adjustment, but forcing Dallas to shoot free throws — the only thing the club did poorly in a two-game sweep at the Staples Center — represents LA’s last desperate hope for survival.
The other options are not working. The Mavericks have shot the Clippers out of the gym. Having an extra day to prepare for Friday’s game and the rowdy crowd that will be a first for either team in 14 months won’t help Los Angeles. Lue and his staff can stand at the blackboard and run through every option in the book, but the math isn’t going to change.
Here are the numbers that matter most from the rather stunning 2-0 lead Dallas has grabbed in the playoffs.
The Mavericks are making half their 3-point shots — 35-for-70 in two games. It’s hard to overcome such staggering efficiency, and 69 points from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George Tuesday night were not enough. But, for LA, the news gets even worse.
Yes, Luka Doncic has been all smiles in this series, running around the court and averaging 35 points per game. But Doncic shooting and in control of the basketball is the Clippers’ best hope. In two games, Doncic is 10-for-24 at the three-point line. That’s almost 42%, well above the Mavs superstar’s norm of 35%.
But the rest of the team is 25-for-46, shooting more than 54%. That is deadly. That is four games and out for the Clippers if they allow that to continue.
Lue sounded lost for answers after Game 2, but he did at least recognize what’s happening.
“We had some game plan mistakes tonight, but when we double-team Luka or blitz Luka, it leaves other guys wide open,” Lue said.
I’m not exactly sure what constitutes game plan mistakes, given that the Clippers have played Dallas 11 times since August, but he’s right about the rest. In many ways, the Clippers’ fate was determined in the first nine minutes when Maxi Kleber went to the bench for a breather with 12 points. He was 5-for-5 with two of those shots from long distance. He had shown what Tim Hardaway Jr. was going to show all night with his 28 points, that the Clippers’ worst nightmare can be the ball leaving Luka’s hands and going directly to teammates instead of towards the basket.
And if that’s true, unless the Mavericks lose their shooting touch, this series is over.
LA’s hope of bothering Luka with the pestering defense of Patrick Beverley has been a disaster. Doncic just shakes his head and figuratively tells him (he’s also done it literally at least once) that Beverley is too small.
“We’ve got to play defense,” said Leonard, after scoring 30 points before halftime but looking exhausted in the final two quarters. He finished with 41.
“(The Mavericks) shooting 58%, 52 from the three just isn’t going to cut it.”
Knowing your car won’t start is different from fixing the problem.
It’s silly to get carried away with history when it’s two different sets of players, but the two wins at the Staples Center had to remind Dallas fans of 2011, and the second round against the defending champs, when the perception of the Mavericks went from a team advancing in the playoffs to maybe one that had the stuff to go all the way.
Beating the Clippers doesn’t signal that, but right now the Mavericks are “a tough cover” as Hubie Brown would say. The Clippers are being forced to remove center Ivica Zubac from the game — he’s averaging 20 minutes and 5 points and 4.5 rebounds — because the Dallas offense exploits him. So LA is going small, but that is providing no answers for how to defend Doncic.
The Clippers will try something, for sure, but the Mavericks’ biggest concern is simply staying the course.
“The challenge is always, when you win a game or two in the playoffs, how do you measure up on the human nature curve when a lot of teams will have letdowns,” Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said. “One of our real challenges will be to keep up the level of intensity and the level of fight.”
A crowd of 15,000 should answer that concern for Dallas. The numbers say fixing LA’s problems aren’t so simple.
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