Oregon State beat 2,800-1 odds to reach Sweet 16 - New York Post

LAS VEGAS — Against long odds, Oregon State senior guard Ethan Thompson might be the most unlikely star of this NCAA Tournament. Thompson is a talented player to be sure, but his team faced a nearly hopeless predicament two weeks ago.

The Beavers finished the regular season in sixth place in the Pac-12, which received a minuscule amount of media hype this season yet has emerged from a five-day whirlwind as the most impressive conference in college basketball.

“I don’t know how this all came together for this Oregon State team all of a sudden,” The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said.

With two minutes remaining in the first half of their Pac-12 Tournament opener on March 11, the Beavers trailed UCLA by 16 points. Oregon State rallied to beat the Bruins in overtime as Thompson scored all 18 of his points after halftime.

The Beavers, needing to win three games in three days just to get into the NCAA field, went on to upset Oregon and Colorado to claim the conference tournament title in Las Vegas. As the No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, Oregon State stunned fifth-seeded Tennessee and fourth-seeded Oklahoma State to reach the Sweet 16.

Thompson scored 26 points Sunday to outduel freshman phenom Cade Cunningham in the Beavers’ 80-70 victory over the Cowboys. The game was played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where the 1986 movie “Hoosiers” featuring the small-town Hickory Huskers’ underdog story culminated. Yes, all of this actually just happened.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, the odds against Oregon State winning five consecutive games in elimination settings — with less than a 30 percent win probability in each game — were approximately 2,800/1.

Oregon State players celebrate after their second-round win over Oklahoma State.

Oregon State and three other double-digit seeds — Oral Roberts, Syracuse and UCLA — advanced past the second round. The Beavers and Bruins join Oregon and USC to give the Pac-12 four teams in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2001. Aside from Bill Walton, no one could see this coming.

“Some surprise teams in there make it more interesting,” Marshall said. “This has been absolutely nuts.”

Because of the betting public’s tendency to play favorites, upsets mean positive results for bookmakers. Underdogs went 24-15 against the spread with 16 outright upsets in the Friday, Saturday and Sunday games.

The NCAA Tournament was canceled last year because of the coronavirus pandemic, but the wagering handle this March is making up for lost time.

“People were yearning for this tournament to be back,” DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello said. “I thought the handle would be great, and it is off the hook. Our win percentage has been good too.”

The ’dog trend finally stopped Monday. After Oregon upset Iowa in the day’s first game, favorites finished on a 7-0 ATS roll. Underdogs still hold a 25-22 lead in the ATS standings.

“The books have no complaints,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It’s a ton of business. The numbers are staggering. I’m just talking about Nevada, but the numbers are strong throughout all of the states.”

The Big Ten’s performance has been surprisingly weak. The conference sent nine teams to the tournament and only Michigan, the No. 1 seed in the East, has survived. Illinois, the top seed in the Midwest, was upset Sunday by No. 8 Loyola Chicago.

Ohio State, a No. 2 seed, opened as a 17-point favorite over Oral Roberts, who shocked the Buckeyes in the first round before upsetting Florida in the second round. The 15th-seeded Golden Eagles of the Summit League are led by sophomore guard Max Abmas, the nation’s leading scorer who has 55 points in two tournament games.

“Our biggest one-game loss was Oral Roberts beating Florida,” Avello said. “Our biggest one-game win was Illinois going down. It’s shocking to me the Big Ten is just blowing up.”

Amid the bracket-busting hysteria, top seeds Gonzaga and Baylor have advanced with ease. BetMGM opened the Zags as 13.5-point favorites against Creighton in the regional semifinals.

The Bears, the last team standing from seven Big 12 teams in the field, are laying 6.5 points against Villanova.

BetMGM lists Gonzaga as the NCAA championship favorite at 3/2 odds, followed by Baylor (9/2), Michigan (9/1) and Houston (9/1). The Cougars are 6-point favorites against Syracuse in the next round, with the Orange getting 5/1 odds to win the Midwest Region and 30/1 odds to win it all.

Pac-12 teams have posted a 9-1 record in the tournament, and one team from the league is guaranteed to reach the Elite Eight with Oregon facing USC in the next round. The Trojans opened as 1-point favorites against the Ducks.

“I really think the Loyola-Oregon State winner is going to get to the Final Four,” Marshall said.

The Ramblers are 6.5-point favorites against the Beavers, who overcame long odds to get to this point and now must fend off Loyola and its spiritual leader, Sister Jean.

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