Intro by Doug Kezirian
After the sportsbooks cleaned up on the NFL's opening weekend with underdogs covering 12 of 16 games, including nine of them winning outright, the second weekend might come down to just one game. The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites in Baltimore on "Sunday Night Football" and could present huge liability for the house.
"Whatever happens during the day, that game will make or break the books because [parlays] could be tied into it," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "The public is going to bet the Chiefs, and the sharps will probably wait to see how high this line will go."
Despite constant support of Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, the Chiefs have actually let backers down. They're only 2-10 against the spread in their past 12 games dating to last year, including the playoffs. However, the star quarterback shined in last week's comeback win against Cleveland, while Baltimore showed plenty of vulnerability in its Monday Night Football loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 6-1 ATS as an underdog but is winless in three career starts against Kansas City.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (2-0-2), Tyler Fulghum (0-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (5-1-1) and Anita Marks (26-17), Stats & Information's Seth Walder (4-4) and Mackenzie Kraemer, sports betting Deputy Editor David Bearman (3-2) and Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz (5-2) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 2 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
1 p.m. ET games
New England Patriots (-5.5, 43) at New York Jets
Bearman: QB Mac Jones is getting a lot of attention after his debut last week. While I will admit that he outplayed Tua Tagovailoa, unless offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels trusts Jones more and opens the offense up, the Patriots are not going to be scoring a lot of points. I watched every play of that game vs. Miami and it was a lot of dump-offs, short passes to tight ends and screens. Honestly, it looked a lot like Miami under Tua last year, with a rookie QB with limited weapons and OCs who didn't trust him yet.
The Jets' offense is a whole different mess. Under rookie QB Zach Wilson and a backfield by committee, Gang Green had 82 totaled yards halfway through the third quarter last week. None of their first nine drives (10 of their first 11 possessions) went for over 40 yards. They finished strong with two TD drives (including a 98-yarder at the end of the game), but the game was mostly out of reach by then. Twenty-seven of the past 40 Patriots road games (32 of those with Tom Brady) went under the total. That's a large five-year sample size hitting at 67.5% under coach Bill Belichick, no matter who the QB is.
Pick: Under 43
Fortenbaugh: Belichick off a loss? Belichick against a rookie quarterback? A New England defense that gave up just 259 total yards against the Dolphins last Sunday? Good luck to Wilson in his home debut. The only reason I'm not laying the lumber here is because I'm not 100 percent sold on Jones and the Patriots' offense just yet.
Pick: Under 43
Schatz: My commentary after Week 1 usually revolves around the idea that we don't want to overreact to one game, but the opinion that the Jets are not a good football team is not an overreaction to Week 1. That was what Football Outsiders projections believed coming into the season, when we had the Jets only slightly ahead of Houston as the No. 31 team in the NFL. As for the Patriots, we expected their defense to be strong this season and we still expect that defense to be strong even if it proved only average (by DVOA) in Week 1.
New England has a significant advantage in the trenches. The Jets should struggle to pick up the Patriots' pass rush, especially with Mekhi Becton injured. And cornerback J.C. Jackson will likely do a good job on Corey Davis. Do the Jets really have the wide receiver depth to pick on the Patriots' depth cornerbacks? On the other side, a Jets pass rush that had only one sack in Week 1 takes on a strong Patriots offensive line. The biggest question might be whether the Patriots are willing to pass the ball more and avoid the Jets' biggest strength -- their run defense. I'm going to bet that Belichick and McDaniels can be flexible.
Pick: Patriots -5.5
Walder: Over the past few years, the Jets haven't been great at much. But one area in which they have excelled? Stopping the run. Anchored by Quinnen Williams and Folorunso Fatukasi along the interior of the defensive line, the Jets rank first in projected run stop win rate. That will surely encourage the Patriots to lean more on Jones and make for some tough sledding for Damien Harris.
Pick: Harris under 73.5 rushing yards (-115)
Marks: The Jets are coming off a loss to the Carolina Panthers in a game in which former Jets QB Sam Darnold left a lot of points on the field, and the Patriots should get back on track after falling to Miami in a game they should have won. Belichick is 25-6 against rookie quarterbacks, and Wilson will be without Mekhi Becton on the offensive line. For the Patriots, Jones was solid in his debut with 281 yards and a TD, and the Jets allowed Darnold to complete 70% of his passes last week.
Pick: Patriots +0.5 in 6-point teaser with Broncos PK, Jones over 243.5 passing yards (-115)
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 50) at Philadelphia Eagles
Kraemer: These teams simply aren't different enough to justify a full three-point line in favor of the road team. Both are good in the trenches. Both have questions at quarterback. Both have a number of explosive weapons offensively. With both teams at full strength, the 49ers are the better team, but just like last year, they're already beat up. Cornerback Jason Verrett and running back Raheem Mostert are out for the season, while several other key defensive players such as Emmanuel Moseley, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead are also banged up. Unlike the Lions last week, the Eagles are better positioned to take advantage.
The Eagles were one of the most impressive teams in Week 1 with a 26-point win in Atlanta, yet the lookahead line barely moved from +4 to +3.5 when it reopened. It has since been bet down to +3 for good reason. Trends also lean toward the Eagles, as the 49ers are 7-17-2 ATS as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan, while the Eagles have covered five straight as a home underdog. Throw in the 49ers playing their second straight early road game, and the Eagles are the play at +3 or better.
Pick: Eagles +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 45)
Bearman: I am going to roll with the Bengals again this week. No, I am not ready to buy a Joe Burrow jersey, but the Bengals have covered seven of the 11 games he has started, all but one as underdogs. With the added dynamic of first-round pick Ja'Marr Chase, the offense takes on a different look.
Just as important, I am just not buying anything with the Bears. They weren't good last year (I know they made the playoffs, but with eight wins) and their defense is worse this year, as we saw Sunday night vs. the Los Angeles Rams. As long as coach Matt Nagy is going to stake his career on the Andy Dalton hill, I will continue fading the Bears. The same Andy Dalton who has failed to cover in any game as a home favorite since 2018. The Bears, as you might expect, aren't good in this spot, either, failing to cover eight of the past 10 as a home favorite. Full transparency: The Bengals have not been a good road team, winning just once in the past two seasons, but they have covered in eight of the 16, which is what we are actually worried about here.
Pick: Bengals +3
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-12.5, 48)
Walder: No player exceeded his total yardage expectation -- based on expected completion probability and expected yards after catch from NFL Next Gen Stats -- more in Week 1 than Brandin Cooks. He earned 132 receiving yards but was expected to record 80 fewer on average, meaning he would have been expected to record only 52 yards, below this line. If we're talking about a star player or players, I might leave it alone, but I can't imagine Cooks and Tyrod Taylor will combine to smash expectations every week.
Pick: Cooks under 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Baker Mayfield will have a big game against a suspect Texans defense, but also don't sleep on Taylor, who in Week 1 threw for 291 yards and two TDs. Expect points to be scored. Nick Chubb has scored in seven straight regular-season games, and that streak should continue. Anthony Schwartz should also be part of the Browns' game plan, coming off three catches for 69 yards on five targets last week.
Pick: Over 48, Chubb over 86.5 rushing yards (-115), Chubb scores TD (-135), Schwartz over 2.5 receptions (-125)
Denver Broncos (-6, 45.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Schatz: The surprise here is not that the Broncos won in Week 1; Football Outsiders projected them to be a playoff team in 2021. The surprise is how they won. Denver ranked only 20th in defensive DVOA for the week, but Teddy Bridgewater led the NFL in QBR. The Broncos' strengths were supposed to be the other way around. It was also promising to see the Broncos suddenly play aggressively on fourth downs after coach Vic Fangio had been the most conservative coach in the league over the past couple of seasons. That kind of decision-making will contribute to more wins down the road. Meanwhile, the Jaguars didn't look good on either side of the ball in a Week 1 loss -- and again, sticking with the idea that we don't want to overreact to Week 1, that's not really any different from what our expectations were before the season.
Pick: Broncos -6
Walder: DJ Chark Jr. racked up 86 yards in Week 1, but it absolutely could have been more. Yardage expectation for an average QB-receiver combo given the targets he received was a whopping 121.8 yards, based on completion probabilities and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats. Sure, Trevor Lawrence attempted 51 passes, but 12 targets for Chark is significant. It's a new offense in Jacksonville, and I think we ought to be willing to move fast off our priors and pay attention to the Week 1 volume. Given that, I like Chark's over.
Pick: Chark over 50.5 receiving yards
Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 47.5) at Miami Dolphins
Kraemer: While the Bills are rightfully one of the Super Bowl favorites, this line simply doesn't take into account how good Brian Flores' team has been recently. After starting his tenure 0-4 outright and ATS, Flores' Dolphins are 20-8 ATS in their past 28 games, including 15-5 ATS as an underdog. And while we've seen several line moves from the look-ahead lines react to the Week 1 results, this line seems to have done the opposite. Despite Miami winning outright as an underdog and Buffalo losing outright as a favorite, this line has grown from 2.5 to 3.5 in favor of the Bills, moving right through the key number of 3. ESPN's Football Power Index has this as a virtual pick 'em with the Bills favored by 0.2.
The Dolphins were conservative offensively last week, but with Will Fuller V coming back from a one-game suspension, the Dolphins suddenly have one of the more underrated receiver groups. Fuller, Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker give the Dolphins a chance to compete, even if this game ends up a shootout. Plus, when in doubt, take a divisional underdog early in the season. Over the past 16 seasons, underdogs in division games hit over 60% of the time within the first five weeks of the season.
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 44) at Carolina Panthers
Fortenbaugh: The look-ahead line for this game was New Orleans -1.5, but after Jameis Winston torched Green Bay for five touchdown passes last Sunday, we saw an adjustment through the key number of 3 all the way to Saints -3.5. I believe that's an over-adjustment that has created value in Carolina +3.5. The Panthers held the Jets to just 4.2 yards per play in Week 1 (third-best defensive performance in NFL), and new signal-caller Sam Darnold looked sharp in his first test in offensive coordinator Joe Brady's system (68% completions, zero interceptions). Throw in the fact that the New Orleans coaching staff is dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak and I see value in backing a live Panthers squad.
Pick: Panthers +3.5
Los Angeles Rams (-4, 47.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Fulghum: I think this is a game in which we can pinpoint how the coaching staffs on each side are going to choose to build an offensive game plan. On the L.A. side, the Rams should mimic what they did in Week 1 to Chicago and what the Seahawks did to this Colts defense in an easy win -- throw the ball. The Colts' defense is anchored by a dominant DeForest Buckner in the middle of the D-line and Darius Leonard at linebacker. Especially if cornerback Xavier Rhodes is out again, it should be a "green light go" for QB Matthew Stafford and coach Sean McVay through the air. On the other side, Frank Reich would be wise to lean on Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines in the backfield. The Rams' "lite" fronts encourage offenses to run the ball, and Bears RB David Montgomery gashed the Rams in Week 1 -- in a negative game script, no less -- for 108 yards on 16 rushes.
Pick: Stafford over 278.5 yards (-115), over 1.5 TD passes (-150), Tyler Higbee over 40.5 receiving yards (-125), Taylor over 64.5 rushing yards (-115), Darrell Henderson under 54.5 rushing yards (-120), Carson Wentz under 236.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: The Stafford-McVay combination is a match made in heaven. The Rams were big on play action and screens in Week 1, but expect to see that used to come back with vertical throws. Stafford had two TD throws of over 20 yards in Week 1, including one to Van Jefferson, who finished with two catches for 80 yards and a score.
Pick: Stafford over 277.5 passing yards (-115), Jefferson over 33.5 receiving yards (-120)
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47)
Kezirian: Hats off to the Raiders for the comeback win on Monday Night Football in a game that will resonate for quite some time. However, I doubt this team can prepare with the appropriate focus on a short week, travel across the country and succeed against a stout Pittsburgh defense that plans to feast on Vegas' injured offensive line. The Steelers were offensively challenged in their opener but still won at Buffalo. They have more than enough weapons to light up this weak Las Vegas defense.
Ultimately, this comes down to the situational spot, which invokes memories of a 2020 game. The Raiders nearly upset the Chiefs on "Sunday Night Football" in a well-played game but then laid a giant egg the following week in Atlanta. They lost 43-6, thanks to five turnovers and nearly 100 yards more in turnovers. Las Vegas just lacks the mental fortitude for this difficult scheduling spot.
Pick: Steelers -5.5, Steelers +.5 in 6-point teaser with Broncos (even), Steelers +.5 in 6-point teaser with Patriots (+.5)
Fortenbaugh: This is a situational bet against the Raiders, pure and simple. If I were a betting man -- and I'd like to fancy myself as one -- I'd be willing to wager the Silver & Black enjoyed themselves a bit after that thrilling overtime win against the Ravens on Monday night in front of their first full house in Las Vegas. Good for them. But this is a very short turnaround with cross-country travel and an early start time against a nasty Pittsburgh defense playing in front of its home crowd for the first time this season. Throw in the fact that this rebuilt Raiders offensive line just lost guard Denzelle Good for the season with a torn ACL and you have a precarious situation against the newly-minted T.J. Watt & Co.
Pick: Steelers -5.5
Marks: Coming off a dramatic OT win, Derek Carr and the Raiders will have a much more difficult time putting up points against Pittsburgh on a short week. But there's no reason to think Carr won't be looking for Darren Waller frequently again. Waller has targeted a massive 19 times against the Ravens and will see big volume again with Carr needing to get rid of the ball quickly. And although Ben Roethlisberger looked a bit rusty in Week 1, he clearly had a go-to receiver in Diontae Johnson, who saw 10 targets (five catches for 36 yards and a TD).
Pick: Waller over 6.5 receptions (-115), Johnson over 66.5 receiving yards (-115)
4 p.m. ET games
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 51)
Bearman: Unlike most Week 2 lines that tend to be overreactions to Week 1, this one is lower than it should be. Maybe I am jaded because this is a matchup of a team I loved before season (over eight wins, +600 to win NFC West) vs. a team I faded before the season, but I have this closer to six points than 3.5. The Cardinals looked even better than I could have imagined last week in blasting Tennessee and now return home vs. a struggling Vikings team. The Vikings trailed most of the second half against a young Bengals team last week and needed a 53-yard field goal just to force OT. Even when it looked like they might pull it out, they fumbled it away, picking up where they left off last season.
Minnesota is 6-11 against the number since last season, and I don't see them stopping the Kyler Murray-DeAndre Hopkins express. Could there be a Week 2 letdown for Arizona? Sure. But the Cardinals have the weapons to score early and often and get the perfect opponent to stop that letdown from happening.
Pick: Cardinals -3.5
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5, 52)
Marks: Mike Davis was the featured back for the Falcons in Week 1 with 15 carries for 49 yards, but Cordarrelle Patterson was the more productive runner, gaining 54 yards on just seven carries. The game script suggests the Falcons will be playing from behind and will be throwing the ball. For Tampa Bay, expect another big game for Rob Gronkowski coming off his 90-yard, two-TD performance last week.
Pick: Davis under 39.5 rushing yards (-115), Gronkowski scores TD (+175)
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 54)
Fortenbaugh: Welcome to the Pacific Northwest, new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron! The Sean McVay disciple made a splash with Russell Wilson & Co. in Week 1, averaging a robust 7.2 yards per play on the road against an Indianapolis defense that ranked in the top 10 last season. To put that in perspective, averaging 7.2 yards per play last year would have ranked first in the NFL. For more perspective, take note that the Seahawks have cracked the top 10 in yards per play just once in the past five years, when the club ranked 10th in 2019. Tennessee has problems on the offensive line (six sacks allowed) and defense (38 points, 416 yards allowed), not to mention a banged-up receiving unit. A road game in Seattle isn't where a team goes to find itself.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 55)
Schatz: Hidden in QB Justin Herbert's impressive Week 1 performance is an interesting split: The Chargers' passing game was successful on 45% of plays on first and second downs but 71% of plays on third downs. We can marvel all we want at the strong throws Herbert made in third-and-long situations, but that kind of split in success rate is not really sustainable. The Chargers ranked 20th in offensive DVOA for Week 1 because of those early-down struggles, while the Cowboys ranked eighth. Furthermore, the Week 1 loss for the Cowboys was partly due to poor special teams, and that's something that's likely to get better for them. Football Outsiders was already on a bit of an island with our mediocre projection for the Chargers, and I'm going to ride with that instead of overreacting to Week 1.
Pick: Cowboys +3
Marks: Herbert picked up right where he left off last season, throwing for 337 yards and a score against a tough Washington defense in Week 1. Now he gets to face a suspect Dallas secondary and a defense that will also be without DeMarcus Lawrence (broken foot).
Pick: Herbert over 300.5 passing yards (-190)
Walder: WR CeeDee Lamb is going to have a great season, and with Michael Gallup out, the opportunity is tremendous. But the upper limit for longest reception lines, from what I've seen, is 27.5 yards and maybe 28.5. So this line really isn't far off, and yet I don't think Lamb fits the profile the way a Calvin Ridley does. The volume is there, yes. But Lamb's 9 yards of depth three seconds into his routes -- per NFL Next Gen Stats -- ranked just 64th out of 95 wide receivers who had at least 15 routes in Week 1. And he was at 9.3 last season. Ridley last year, for comparison, was 11.3 yards downfield after three secondsc, and his prop this week is just a yard higher.
Pick: Lamb longest reception under 26.5 yards (-115)
8:20 p.m. ET game
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 55) at Baltimore Ravens
Kezirian: I will side with the public and grab the Chiefs, even though they are only 2-10 ATS in their past 12 games, dating to last year (including the playoffs). Kansas City has too much firepower for Baltimore to maintain pace, given the Ravens' running back injuries and inferior offensive line. Plus, more importantly, the Ravens no longer have the stellar defense from recent seasons, and Las Vegas exposed the secondary on Monday. What do you think Patrick Mahomes will do? Baltimore's championship window feels like it has closed, and I think the Chiefs are on a mission this season.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Marks: Baltimore is coming off a disappointing overtime loss to the Raiders on Monday and now must travel across the country to face a Chiefs team that will have an extra day of rest after playing Sunday (Andy Reid wins 70% of the time with a rest advantage). The Ravens love to blitz Mahomes (45% of his dropbacks), but maybe they should reconsider. The Chiefs QB has completed 76% of his passes with six TDs and no INTs against the Ravens when they blitz. Tight end Travis Kelce also should have a big game. Darren Waller put up 10 catches for 105 yards and a score last week against Baltimore, and the Ravens will be without defensive back Chris Westry (knee), so expect Kelce to feast. With the disappointing OT loss on other side of country, expect the Ravens to come out flat, so rolling with the Chiefs in the first half.
Pick: Chiefs first half -2.5, Chiefs team total over 29.5 (-110), Kelce scores TD (-135)
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