CLEVELAND, Ohio – It’s December, and the Browns have a big game at Tennessee. The 8-3 Browns playing the 8-3 Titans has me talking to myself:
QUESTION: What if the Browns lose? I mean, what if they get pounded?
ANSWER: The game is at Tennessee. The Titans are a mature, physically tough team in their third season with one of the game’s best young coaches – Mike Vrabel from Walsh High. Common sense says the Browns should lose this game.
Q: That’s my point, what if they get embarrassed like they did in Baltimore and Pittsburgh?
A: The Browns were outscored 78-13 in those two games. I don’t think they’ll lose like that. But if they lose, what happens?
Q: They are 8-4 and it will feel like 4-8.
A: Are you the guy who sent me the email with that line, especially if they are overwhelmed by Tennessee?
Q: And if they lose the last five games, they are 8-8, right?
A: I got an email from that guy, too. First of all, 8-4 won’t feel like 4-8. Browns fans know what 4-8 (or worse) is like. They know very little about 8-4 unless they can remember 1994. Even the 2007 Browns were 7-5 after 12 games. They finished 10-6.
Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel watches from the sideline in an October loss to the Steelers. AP
Q: What are you trying to say?
A: The Browns are a lot like Tennessee. Both teams have almost identical run-heavy offenses that demand the QB stay away from mistakes. Both have young coaches who settled down difficult situations. The difference is this is the third season for Vrabel. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is in his second season with the Titans and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Baker Mayfield is in his 12th game with OC Alex Van Pelt and coach Kevin Stefanski.
Q: Your main point?
A: Both teams are traveling the same football road, but the Browns are behind the Titans.
Kyle Shanahan talks with quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel during a 2014 game. John Kuntz,The Plain Dealer
Q: That doesn’t sound good.
A: Maybe not for this Sunday, but long term – yes. This offense, which goes back to the Shanahan School (Mike & Kyle) and is also being used to some extent by Sean McVay, looks like a consistent NFL winner. Now head coach of San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan had some success with this offense with Brian Hoyer and the Browns in 2014 when he was offensive coordinator here.
Q: So you like the offense?
A: As Vrabel said, “Both teams have put themselves in position to play meaningful games in December. ... They (Cleveland) had won three in a row, we’ve played better the last two weeks.”
Q: Don’t you think the Browns are in big trouble Sunday?
A: I do. An NFL executive I trust believes the Browns can make it very interesting. His point is the Titans defense isn’t anything special. Tennessee ranks 24th in yards allowed per game, the Browns are 17th. Against the run, the Titans rank 17th ... the Browns are ninth. Both teams are allowing 26 points per game.
Q: Why do I find it hard to believe the Browns’ defense is better than the Titans’, or even about the same?
A: I’m with you on that. Sunday, the Browns won’t have two of their top three defensive players. Denzel Ward (calf) and Ronnie Harrison Jr. (shoulder) are out. Myles Garrett is back for the first time in three weeks, but how strong will he be after having been sick with COVID-19?
Q: So how can the Browns keep it interesting?
A: The executive talked about Mayfield. The Browns want him to grow into a Tannehill-type QB. He needs to play a Tannehill-type game. Tannehill has thrown 23 TD passes compared to four interceptions, completing 65 percent.
Q: Baker’s numbers aren’t even close to that.
A: Baker is at 13 TDs compared to seven interceptions, 61 percent completions. Baker hasn’t thrown an interception in his last four games. As Vrabel said: “Baker is taking care of the ball lately. ... He looks comfortable throwing outside the pocket ... it looks comfortable at the line of scrimmage, working their cadence system. ... It looks like he has a clear understanding of what they want to do.”
Q: Meaning what?
A: Use the power running game first. Cleveland ranks No. 1 in rushing, Tennessee is No. 2. When Nick Chubb is healthy, he combined with Kareem Hunt to average 199 yards per game! As Chubb said: “We are just hard runners. We don’t do a lot of dancing ... just kind of north-to-south guys.”
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield throws against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first half. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
Q: You started talking about Baker, then went into the running game. Baker missed at least three open receivers last week, and the Browns were lucky to win (27-25) in Jacksonville.
A: First, about Baker. He was sincere when he said there were “a couple of throws I wanted back ... a few more than I wanted to. They were scoring plays. The game was closer than I wanted it to be because of some of the mistakes I made. I was hard on myself.”
Q: Why do you think Baker is sincere?
A: Here’s what Chubb said: “Baker is different. He’ll own up to things he hasn’t done well. Nobody has to say anything to him. ... We know that. We trust in that. He is hard on himself. He wants to be great.”
Q: Do you think Chubb is sincere?
A: Chubb is always sincere. Just like when he mentioned how the media was dwelling on the Titans having star runner Derrick Henry and the Browns have Chubb. Right away, Chubb said, “Kareem is great, too. He is right there with us (Henry and Chubb).”
Q: So how do the Browns win this game?
A: They do it on the ground, with Baker also hitting some passes for big gains off play-action fakes. The Browns believe Baker found some of his lost confidence in the 37-34, five TD pass victory over the Bengals on Oct. 25. He’s thrown only one interception in 20 quarters starting with that game and the Browns are 4-1.
Q: But what about some of the bad throws?
A: Van Pelt: “Don’t overanalyze it. ... It happens. He made four, five, six different throws that were big time in tight windows down the field with great accuracy ... then he missed a couple of easy ones. ... You don’t overanalyze it.”
Q: Why would Van Pelt say that?
A: Because the Browns have filled Baker’s head with so much information from changing his footwork to the new offense. They pound away about zero turnovers. He knows Baker is being critiqued relentlessly by the local and national media. Van Pelt explained: “I’d gladly take a 5-yard gain over a 20-yard chance of an interception.”
A: Vrabel stresses the same thing for Tannehill. Don’t take unnecessary chances. Not when you have a great running game. Both teams want to keep the ball, wear down the opposing defense. The Browns are pleased to see Baker not dwelling on his own stats, truly buying into the “win the game” style of being a QB.
Q: But won’t they need him to make some big throws in this game?
A: Absolutely. The Titans don’t have a good defensive line. They will have to bring the linebackers and safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to combat Chubb and Hunt. There will be chances for Baker to connect downfield. It’s a game where the Browns’ defense is wounded. Yes, it’s perhaps the most important game of Baker’s career because he never has been on a winning team in three seasons.
Let’s see how he responds.
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